psilva's prophecies: technology

Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

I'm Sorry Sir, You're Obsolete

Is the rate of obsolescence proportionate to the rate of technology advances?

A few years ago, those little iHome alarm clocks started to appear in hotel rooms. Cool gadgets that you could mount your mobile phone to battery charge or play the music on the device. We also had a few in our home. They worked perfectly for the iPhone4 since the connector was that 1 inch protruding plug. When I got the iPhone6, those clocks instantly became useless. Obsolete. At least the phone connector part lost its value.

I’ve been thinking about this for a while.

The rate of obsolescence. The state when an object, technology, service or practice is no longer needed or wanted…even though it still may be in good working order. E-waste is the fastest growing segment of the waste stream. With the technological advances, not only are we buying the latest and greatest electronics but we’re also dumping perfectly good, working devices at silly rates. There was even a story about a Central Park mugger who rejected a flip phone during a heist.

Sure, the new gadget is shiny, faster, better or does stuff the other one couldn’t. All commercial things have the typical emerging, growth, maturity and decline model and I started wondering if the rate of obsolescence is proportionate to the rate of technology advances.

Moore’s Law and Wright’s Law are generally regarded as the best formulas for predicting how rapidly technology will advance. They offer approximations of the pace of technological progress. Moore’s Law (1965) describes the rate of improvement in the power of computer chips – essentially, the number of components doubles every 18 months. Generally, the principle can be applied to any technology and says that, depending on the technology, the rate of improvement will increase exponentially over time.

Wright’s Law (1936), says that progress increases with experience. Meaning that each percent increase in cumulative production (in a given industry) results in a fixed percentage improvement in production efficiency.

A simple web search of ‘rate of technological advancement’ returns scores of images that show a huge ramp going up:

But is there the same rapid decline chart for ‘out of date, lost freshness’ technologies gone by?

Nothing with a laptop falling off a cliff but there are certainly charts showing the rate of e-waste:

The climb is not as dramatic as technology advances (yet) but it is still growing rapidly.

So there doesn’t seem to be (or I simply can’t find it) a direct correlation or chart that incorporates both technology advances and resulting obsoleteness. There are plenty of articles that do cover things that will be obsolete in the next few years (DVD players, landlines, clock radios); the jobs that will be obsolete (travel agent, taxi driver); and the things that became obsolete over the last decade.

There is a patent, US7949581 B2, which describes a method of determining an obsolescence rate of a technology yet that looks more at the life of a technology patent and its eventual decay and depreciation rate. Less citations over the years means patent decay. This is more about the depreciation of a specific patent rather than how society embraces and then ultimately tosses the technology.

The funny thing is that nowadays vintage items and antiques seem to be hot markets. Nostalgia is a big seller. Longing for the simpler times I guess.

And lastly, the rate of World IQ over time. Is there a connection with technology?

If you feel your infrastructure is becoming obsolete with all that cloudy talk, F5 can certainly help by providing the critical application delivery services consistently across all your data centers - private clouds, public clouds, and hybrid deployments - so you can enjoy the same availability, security and performance you've come to expect.

ps

Related:

E-waste image courtesy: www.slideshare.net/SuharshHarsha

World IQ image courtesy: http://uhaweb.hartford.edu/BRBAKER/

Friday, April 1, 2016

The Land of the Partially Connected

Greetings from Ottertail County

Last week my family visited some relatives in Minnesota. Fergus Falls and Clitherall to be exact. Both are situated in Ottertail County – about half way up the state toward the Fargo, North Dakota side. While Fergus has a population of around 13,000, Clitherall claims 112 people and much of the area is farms, lakes, woods, nature and many of the locals are hunters, ice-fishers, farmers and people who love the great outdoors...even during the long, demanding winters. In the summer it is a quaint little resort town. There is a dirt road to get to my wife’s dad’s house and we even saw a couple eagles engaged in a talon lock while we were there. We always enjoy our stays.

A decade ago, cell phone coverage was spotty but it has gotten better, albeit 2/3G in some areas, and most have access to the internet either by cable or satellite. But the internet, for some folks, is not as important or critical like it is for many of us ‘connected’ beings. Poppa Maggie’s house on Mallard Bay can get internet access but he doesn't want it. I’m sure many of you have experienced remote areas of the country where the grid is available but people choose not participate or simply use their mobile device for the few things that they need.

At one of the family gatherings - on a farm in a log cabin - our cousins were wide-eyed about all the ‘technology’ stuff we knew. While I asked about the family history and why they originally settled in that location, soon the discussion turned to wearables, data breaches, encryption and even the Fed’s iPhone situation. I remember Cousin Patty saying, ‘I’m just a simple farm girl and really don’t know anything about the internet or technology.’

I was a little jealous.

Granted, many of the large farms in America do use technology to track the herd, measure moisture/water schedules, check soil conditions, maneuver tractors, check grain silos and so forth. But these were small family farmers and didn’t have large contracts with nationwide distributors. Often, their crop is to simply feed the family and stock for the year and/or sell at local markets.

I told Patty that I was a bit envious of her situation and knowing all the ins and outs of technology can sometimes be stressful, anxiety filled and a burden. Always worried about being a target; insight on how cyber-crime works; knowing that nothing is totally secure until you unplug or disconnect it. I felt safer surrounded by trees, lakes, deer, bear, geese, and ducks…and with no computer connection. Add to that, they got me beat hands down for survival skills. They are craftsman, cooks, hunters, builders, agriculturalists, environmentalists, conservationists and hard working, good people.

BREAKING NEWS: It was tranquil and relaxing.

Like many of you, technology is part of my life, how I make a living and I’m not looking to hang up my RJ-45s any time soon. I have a great interest in how it is shaping our society and love exploring and explaining how a lot of it works. However, it is also important, to unplug every once in a while and experience some technology-free time. It clears the mind, slows you down and you might get to see the flirtatious free fall (or epic battle) of a truly majestic creature.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

The Top 10, Top 10 Predictions for 2016

The time of year when crystal balls get a viewing and many pundits put out their annual predictions for the coming year. Rather than thinking up my own, I figured I’d regurgitate what many others are expecting to happen.

7 Future Predictions for the Internet of Things – IoT is one of the hottest terms and trends. From connected cars, homes, businesses and more, connected devices are becoming more prevalent in our lives. Stable Kernel looks at the future economic growth, development of smart cities, wearables, privacy challenges and how voice commands will become the norm.

Top 10 Humanoid Robots Designed To Match Human Capabilities And Emotions – While once a dream of The Jetsons, companion robots in the home will become as common as pets, even if the pet is a robot. WT VOX explores whether robots could fully replace humans by 2045 as some predict and takes a look at the top 10 that are starting to match human capability.

The top security threats of 2016 – ZDNet digs into McAfee's 2016 cybersecurity threat report covering areas like hardware, ransomware, cloud services, connected cars and the warehouses of stolen data. From the Ashley Madison hack, to Jeeps taken off-road and the TalkTalk breach, digital infiltration is now a daily occurrence and no one is immune.

Forrester’s top 10 predictions for business in 2016 — and what they mean for tech – Computerworld summarizes Forrester’s top 10 predictions and how 2016 will be the year that the companies that thrive will be those advancing down the customer obsession path. They look at critical business issues like loyalty, analytics, personalization and how privacy will become a value to which customers will respond. You need to live a customer-obsessed operating model to survive.

IBM predicts tech world of 2016 – At number 5, IBM has published its 6th annual Five in Five - where it predicts five innovations that will change all of our lives in the next five years, with mind-reading machines apparently set to be interpreting our thoughts by 2016. From generating our own energy to no more passwords to almost everyone having some sort of mobile technology, IBM Labs is exploring these emerging technologies.

DDoS Predictions for 2016, IBM Insights – Also from Big Blue, they are sharing insight into new types of DDoS attacks that are to be expected during the coming year. DDoS is no longer a nagging problem but a bona fide technique to disable a company’s resources. BitTorrent, malicious JavaScript and Temporal Lensing DDoS (pdf) attacks are all explained. As I’ve mentioned before, there have always been protesters and activists - some write letters, some picket on the sidewalk, some throw rocks and with the advent of the internet, now you can protest (and more) by creating digital havoc.

5 IT industry predictions for 2016 from Forrester and IDC – CIO.com hits on the 2016 predictions of IDC and Forrester, two of the largest analyst firms. In their distillation, there could be a bleak future for legacy vendors since according to IDC, ‘by 2020, more than 30 percent of the IT vendors will not exist as we know them today.’ There will also be some cloud consolidation, big data gets even bigger and traditional enterprises will turn into software companies. Software developers will become a scarce commodity.

IDC Software Licensing and Pricing Predictions 2016: Top 10 Predictions – And speaking of software, Amy Konary of IDC writes about focus areas like the growth of subscription and outcomes-based pricing, the real cost of licensing complexity, usage models in IoT, the business model impacts of the convergence of cloud, mobile, social, and big data technologies.

10+1 Commandments For Companies Developing Wearable Health Trackers – Many of us will be getting a wearable or two this holiday season so ScienceRoll rolled up it’s 10+1 commandments every company developing wearable health trackers should follow. Practical value, online communities, long live batteries and gamification are what user’s desire. We know you want to make money but focus on helping people live a healthier life.

In-depth: Top 10 Internet of Things companies to watch – We started with IoT and figured I’d caboose this with another. RCRWireless digs in to the top players in both Industrial IoT and Consumer IoT. Many of the names are familiar: Cisco, IBM, ATT, Google, GE, Samsung and a few others are already hedging their future on all these connected nouns. See what these organizations are doing both internally and externally to embrace IoT and take advantage of this proposed multi-trillion dollar market opportunity.

And if you want to see if any of the previous year’s predictions came true, here ya go:

Technorati Tags: 2016,predictions,future,technology,security,cloud,iot,silva,wearables,f5,top10

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Wednesday, October 14, 2015

The Wave of Change at Tech Events

I attend a lot of technology trade shows throughout the year and still remember going to my first technology event for F5 back in 2004. Small, almost high school science fair type booths handing out glossy flyers of the latest product along with our famous squeeze balls.

And for the years that followed, the events, booths,sessions and presentations got bigger and better...but the expo vendors were still almost exclusive to technology providers. The attendees came from different industries and walks of life but they were there to learn about the latest tech solutions offered by these semi-tented companies.

Until now.

Recently, at events like MWC, RSA, VMworld and AWS re:Invent, I've started noticing a number of traditionally non-technology specific vendors exhibiting and positioning within technology events. Granted, over the years there have been a smattering of one-offs at events and of course there is CES but these days, there seems to be more historically non-tech companies appearing and exhibiting at tech events.

But it makes total sense.

I really took notice during Mobile World Congress earlier this year where a number of auto manufactures had huge displays showing their software-driven connected cars and how mobile technologies are enabling these internet connected devices. Most auto manufacturers are already partnering with multiple service providers and technology companies to bring mobility, connectivity and interaction to the car.

And then just recently at AWS re:Invent, amongst all the technology companies, there was an apparel, shoe and fitness manufacturer highlighting the technology within their wearables. Along with clothing, these companies are becoming software and data warehouses connecting them directly to the consumer. It is not just about the cool laces anymore, it's about measuring the impact of your foot to the ground and automatically adjusting the cushion. It's about getting instant feedback about your golf swing from the shirt you are wearing. It's about measuring your vitals to ensure your activity is healthy and productive.

And that is all about the embedded technology.

As more home appliances, wearables, automobiles, cameras, fitness trackers, and any other of these sensors and actuators powering the Internet of Things gets connected and generates data, I suspect we'll be seeing more ovens, autos, shoes and other stuff appearing at these industry events.

I think it's an interesting trend to observe.

Technorati Tags: iot,things,events,trade shows,technology,wearables,silva

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Tuesday, December 9, 2014

The Top 10, Top 10 Predictions for 2015

The time of year that crystal balls get a viewing and many pundits put out their annual predictions for the coming year. Rather than thinking up my own, I figured I’d regurgitate what many others are expecting to happen.

IDC Reveals Worldwide Internet of Things Predictions for 2015 - So 2014, according to last year's proclamations, was the break out year for the Internet of Things (Iot) and it didn't disappoint. IoT is everywhere and IDC offers their take for 2015. Cloud, security & network capacity all come into play when wearables, embedded systems and smart cities overrun our society.

Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2015 - Gartner announced their technology trends that will be strategic for most organizations in October with IoT, Everywhere Computing and 3D Printing topping the list. They also include the rise of Smart Machines, Software defined systems and the recognition that it is not possible to provide a 100 percent secured environment. Once organizations acknowledge that, they can begin to apply more-sophisticated risk assessment and mitigation tools.

Seven Cloud Security Predictions for 2015 - OK, not 10 but 7 interesting cloud security predictions from Perspecsys. With more breaches and surveillance it is important to secure sensitive data while maintaining application functionality. True that. They talk about how Private Clouds will continue growth, the rise of Intellectual data in the cloud, mobile-first development, breach insurance and how the cloud is redrawing the IT security line.

More Cloud Data Breaches ‘Inevitable’ in 2015, Forrester Says - Robert Graham reviews Forrester's Predictions 2015: The Days of Fighting the Cloud are Over which talks about how cloud breaches are inevitable but it will probably happen through some typical business process or lack of training rather than a direct cloud hit. Forrester also says that Docker containers will become a slam dunk, that there will be a surge in industry-specific, software-as-a-service product (IoT?) and Software-as-a-service vendors will creep toward hybrid rollouts.

Top 10 Tech Predictions for 2015 - Over on LinkedIn Dr. Hossein Eslambolchi, Chairman and CEO at CyberFlow Analytic, offers his 2015 take. He notes that that Applications must be the center (of the universe), that Data Intensive Applications Will Rule Wireless IP and that Cloud Computing Will Plateau among his futures.

Security Predictions for 2015 and Beyond - Trend Micro has their annual report out called The Invisible Become Visible on how more cybercriminals with use darknets to share attack tools, stage attacks and sell the ill-gotten gains.We'll be sharing more data, our passwords will still be a target and an exploit kit specifically targeting Android will appear.

Top cybersecurity predictions of 2015 - ZDNet offers a slideshow (with text) with their perception. While our healthcare info is always at risk, there will be new players and vulnerabilities geared toward stealing that plus a whole lotta other stuff since Information is a digital goldmine. Also, as more IoT devices connect, there will be attacks targeting your thermostat, car or coffee machine. I called it over a year ago but there you have it.

IDC: Top 10 Technology Predictions For 2015 - Yea, I had IDC at the top for IoT but this is their overall report. Forbes goes over this report where new technologies (cloud, mobile, big data, and the Internet of Things — and an exploding number of solutions built on them) will see 100% growth. Worldwide IT and telecommunications spending will grow 3.8% in 2015 to more than $3.8 trillion. Wireless data will grow, innovative partnerships will form, cloud is the new data center and China will have huge influence. Interesting read here.

2015 Timeline - FutureTimeLine.net has an interesting list of upcoming 2015 events. While technology driven, many look at achievements and plans rather than wishes and guesses. For instance, in 2015 The first solar aircraft to circumnavigate the globe will make an attempt, there will be The first self-regulating artificial heart, that Electric car ownership reaches 1 million worldwide and The New Horizons probe arrives at Pluto. It just woke up from the 9 year trip yesterday!

26 Hilariously Inaccurate Predictions About the Future - And for some fun, nostalgia and history here are some predictions that just never came true. From personal helicopters to rocket belts to homes made of steel, many come with the original story.

Technorati Tags: 2014,2015,predictions,future,technology,security,cloud,iot,silva,f5

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Thursday, December 5, 2013

The Top 10, Top 10 Predictions for 2014

This time of year the crystal balls get a viewing and many pundits put out their annual predictions for the coming year. Rather than thinking up my own, I figured I’d regurgitate what many others are expecting to happen.

Cybersecurity in 2014: A roundup of predictions: ZDNet might have picked up that I have done this for the past two years and Charles McLellan put together his own collection. This is a good place to start with lists from Symantec, Websense, FireEye, Fortinet and others. Mobile malware, zero-days, encryption, 'Internet of Things,' and a personal favorite, The Importance of DNS are amongst many predictions.

Eyes on the cloud: Six predictions for 2014: Kent Landry - Senior Consultant at Windstream focuses on Cloud futures in this Help Net Security piece. Hybrid cloud, mobility and that pesky Internet of Everything make the list.

5 key information security predictions for 2014: InformationWeek has Tarun Kaura, Director, Technology Sales, Symantec discuss the coming enterprise threats for 2014. Social Networking, targeted attacks, cloud and yet again, The Internet of Things finds a spot.

Top 10 Security Threat Predictions for 2014: This is essentially a slide show of Fortinet's predictions on Channel Partners Telecom but good to review. Android malware, increased encryption, and a couple botnet predictions are included.

2014 Cyber Security Forecast: Significant healthcare trends: HealthITSecurity drops some security trends for healthcare IT security professionals in 2014. Interesting take on areas like standards, audit committees, malicious insiders and supply chain are detailed.

14 IT security predictions for 2014: RealBusiness covers 10 major security threats along with four ways in which defenses will evolve. Botnets, BYOD, infrastructure attacks and of course, the Internet of Things.

4 Predictions for 2014 Networks: From EETimes, this short list looks at the carrier network concerns. Mobile AAA, NFV, 5G and once again, the Internet of Things gets exposure.

8 cyber security predictions for 2014: InformationAge goes full cybercriminal with exploits, data destruction, weakest links along with some 'offensive' or retaliatory attack information.

Verizon's 2014 tech predictions for the enterprise: Another ZDNet article covering the key trends Verizon believes will brand technology. Interest includes the customer experience, IT decentralization, cloud and machine-to-machine solutions.

Research: 41 percent increasing IT security budget in 2014: While not a list of predictions, this article covers a recent Tech Pro Research survey findings focused on IT security. The report, IT Security: Concerns, budgets, trends and plans, noted that 41 percent of survey respondents said they will increase their IT security budget next year. Probably to counter all the dire predictions.

A lot to consider as you toast the new year with the Internet of Things making many lists. The key is to examine your own business and determine your own risks for 2014 and tackle those first.

Technorati Tags: 2014,predictions,trends,security,IT,cloud,breach,risk,f5,silva,IoT,top 10

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Thursday, September 5, 2013

Are You Ready For Some...Technology!!

Every year around this time football fans are drafting their fantasy leagues, wearing their favorite team's jerseys, stocking tailgate items and experiencing the new technologies that have become part of the game. From Second Screen apps to Catapult, technology is not only changing the game but also how fans experience the contest.

As more fans engage with mobile devices, the TV broadcast is being regulated as the Second Screen. Usually the mobile device is used to access information that compliments the program but with NFL fans, particularly those who play fantasy leagues, it is the reverse. They are locked in to their mobile app, following multiple games, tracking stats, clicking on-demand videos and even watching teams not associated with their local market. The NFL sees a huge opportunity to reach and engage fans even more.

Australia-based Catapult is being used by many NFL teams to track athlete performance among other metrics. A 3.5-ounce monitor situated between the player's shoulder blades monitors player movements within 15 centimeters and gives coaches acceleration, distance covered, speed, explosion times, exertion, hitting force and every other imaginable piece of data on a player's specific movements. It is changing the manner in which teams practice, recover from injuries and even plan for games.

The San Francisco 49ers’ new Levi’s Stadium is touted as the most technologically advanced stadium in the league. With their stadium app, fans can check bathroom, food and beer lines along with streaming replays (with your choice of camera angle) and streaming NFL Redzone. There is plenty of WiFi capacity, which is actually uncommon at NFL stadiums. There is only a handful of teams with WiFi service in their football stadiums but Roger Goodell (NFL commissioner) wants to make wireless internet a standard in NFL stadiums in the coming years.

There are many other advances like safer helmets with a chip that monitors the force of a hit, 2100-inch HDTVs, retractable grass and sustainable stadiums all making an impact. The best place to watch football is in the comfort of your own living room and teams are looking at ways of creating a living room atmosphere for 80,000 fans.

And as you're waiting for tonight's kickoff, check out what this dad did for his kids.

Technorati Tags: nfl,technology,sports,football,mobile,apps,stadiums,silva,catapult,f5,infrastructure,application delivery

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Thursday, October 11, 2012

The Evolution of Trade Show Badges

I’ve been to a few trade shows over the years and have noticed a change in the badges we wear at these events. These wear-for-a-week necklaces offer our name, company, job title and our affiliation to the specific conference – speaker, exhibitor and so forth. Some are high-tech also. I have many from years ago that are printed on heavy paper stock to the ones that are on a blank piece of plastic. I even remember the old sticker ‘HELLO’ name badges from some early conferences. These days, many have embedded chips, printed bar codes and QR codes for the booth lead scanners along with verifying that certain people have the proper credentials (full conference vs. expo only) to attend specific sessions. Yes, technology has even infiltrated our trade show badges. I would imagine that a decade from now, the badges would have a little LCD/LED (or whatever the hologram technology is in 10 years) screens on the back of the badge and that would allow you to watch the current keynote right from the badge itself! Now, that would be cool.

I especially like the badges that have a slew of identifiers hanging off the bottom. You’ve seen them, the ones with speaker, alumni, distinguished something, superhero, all hanging like the flags at the U.N. They could double as a tie depending on length and color.

Even the piece that we put around our neck has changed to some extent. The thin rope type seem to be fading into the more flat ribbon type with the sponsor’s name printed down the sides. Those are a lot more comfortable but I can’t seem to keep the name part facing forward. Oh yes, there are those clips with the ball-joint to twist the badge yet mine always seems backwards. Of course those are the single clip kind in the middle but there are also the double clip that does keep the badge forward. Sometimes analysts like to keep their badge flipped so you can’t tell who they are in an attempt to converse and have you potentially spill something that should not be shared with an industry analyst. All mesmerizing stuff, I know.

So as TV’s, smartphones, computers, cars and all those other obvious technology type advances astound, don’t forget about all the other ancillary things we use that are also making advances, albeit not as splashy. And if you’re wondering what events F5 will be at, check out our Events calendar on the newly redesigned f5.com

Resources:

Technorati Tags: F5, data breach report, threats, Pete Silva, security, malware, technology, smartphone, cyber-threat, social engineering, attacks, virus, vulnerability, web, internet, cybercrime, identity theft, scam, data breach

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